Showing posts with label Award Races. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Award Races. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

What a Year!

It's October as Toninho pointed out in a post the other day!  He also talked about the end of the baseball season and the start of playoffs.  That's where I come in, a majority of this was written about a week ago on the last day of the season, I tried to update it as much as I could.

AL East
I say it's obvious that the biggest story of the year in the AL East was the Red Sox deciding to take a very talented team and driving it into the ground again.  Going into this year, this Red Sox team was not the same team that I knew when they reversed the curse and won two titles in 3 years after an 86 year drought.  They had Fried Chickengate, Francona's firing and the sting from last year's collapse on their mind, a real Red Sox team would have gone in with a chip on their shoulder and be what Bill Simmons often refers to as the "Nobody Believes in Us" team.  Instead they got a team full of entitled players and sedated management, it was a disaster from day 1, and now they have to start from scratch.  Meanwhile the Yankees hardly even stumbled through the season and will likely beat the Sox in the two remaining games to clinch the AL East and the top seed (they did).  I can't think of anything positive or negative to say about Toronto other than better luck next year.  The Rays had the season they were expecting to have and would've made the playoffs if it wasn't for those meddling kids in Baltimore.  Yes, the Orioles, a team running completely on bravado winning pretty much every 1 run game they played in and are a jaw dropping 11 games better than their Pythagorean Record.  Holy Buck Showalter Batman!  I can't imagine they can keep this up in the playoffs, but you can never rule out the real "Nobody Believes in Us" team.
Been there, done that...
AL Central
I wrote about them earlier in the season, it turned out to be fairly accurate so read on that and love my predictive talents.  The Tigers put it together and clinched the division despite underachieving, the White Sox did find consistent pitching and held it together until dropping out of the playoff hunt the other night, I overrated the Indians who found a 12 game losing streak in August and never looked back, Kansas City started playing better but they were never destined to much and the Twins are the worst team in the American League.  Detroit is ending the season and going into the playoffs as a streaky team, the magic of October will have to decide their fate.  Meanwhile, Miguel Cabrera is making me look slightly good since I said after this year there won't be any question that he is the best hitter in baseball, winning the Triple Crown will surely do that.  He has been in the top 5 of MVP voting 5 years in his career, including the last 3 years, I think this is the year he going to finally get over that hump.  I'll gush over him more later.
Gushing.
AL West
I honestly can't wait to get to talk about the Astros in this camp next year.  Anyways, the Rangers have been mildly uninteresting like the Yankees and just kept winning and still have (had) the upper hand in winning the division again.  What the people really want are surprises!  Like the Mariners!  Oh wait... they didn't play that well, except for the fact they were probably like 15 games better than I expected out of them.  Lets try again.  Like the Angels!  Kinda... Trout had been a total spark plug and having the best rookie season since Ichiro broke into the league in 2001, Pujols also ended up having a good year after his abysmal start but their pitching betrayed them despite signing C.J. Wilson and trading fro Zach Grienke so they are on the outside looking in.  One more try for the excitement.  Like the Athletics!  Now that is exciting, this team of nobodies who signs a top free agent in Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, trades their best starting pitcher (Gio Gonzalez) and their closer (Andrew Bailey), should not be competing.  And that's what we thought when it reached midseason and they traded their catcher Kurt Suzuki to join Gonzalez in Washington, yet they just didn't stop winning.  I still haven't watched any of their games so I don't know if they are actually good or not, but I can't think of anything more fitting than them having this amazingly unexpected year the year after Moneyball came out and made a splash at the box office.  The baseball gods have an interesting way of working, I'll call this a team of destiny for now and may the gods (or Brad Pitt) be with them.
This town ain't big enough for the two of us!
NL East
I was a moron and didn't publish my thoughts on the Nationals before this year, but Toninho, my brother and some of my close friends are sure of how I felt before this season.  I thought they were a year away from being a playoff contender, but then they traded for Gio Gonzalez and basically told the world "were gonna be in the playoffs, deal with it."  I knew Gio was a good move but a 20 game winner was beyond my wildest dreams, not only did I enjoy this from a fantasy owner perspective (taking Gio in effectively the 11th round of my draft) but I enjoyed it from the seats as I happened to organize a trip to DC to see a game with some friends and it was the day he won his 20th over the Brewers!  I think the Nationals are going to hang around for a long time and can still make a dent in the playoffs without Strasburg.  I have also been a big fan of the Braves for a large chunk of my life and am really happy to see them playing so well in the final year of Chipper Jones's illustrious career, and am also happier to see Heyward may be stepping up to be the new franchise guy with a great year.  Unfortunately I sat through a game that I could only describe as condensing a long term relationship into 3 and a half hours, to see the Braves lose the Wild Card and Chipper end his career, we'll miss you.  The Marlins were struck down by the baseball Gods after hosting the Opening Night game which is an honor that should go to the defending champs every year.  The Phillies got old.  And the Mets held in there better than I would have ever imagined, especially R.A. Dickey's continued success.
Didn't even mention this fine lad!
NL Central
Fuck the Cardinals.  They are the New York Giants of the MLB and are one of the main reasons I'm starting to agree with Toninho about how the American sports playoff systems are kinda dumb.  They have a very good offense and some fine pitchers but screw them.  If you want a playoff team let me show you the Cincinnati Reds, a team I truly can respect, from the OBP monster Joey Votto, the playful spirit of Brandon Phillips and the guitar of Bronson Arroyo.  I hope to see them continue the success they have seen thus far in the Playoffs (unless the face off with Washington).  Milwaukee saw a late season run be for naught, but saw fantastic years out of Aramis Ramirez and Ryan Braun, they could be a good team next year.  The Cubs and Astros were absolutely abysmal, it is kind of sad.  And lastly we all missed out on a great story in the Pirates who keep on teasing us by performing admirably until the All-Star break and then losing control.  I want to see them make it back to the playoffs some time.
It's been too long...
NL West
The Dodgers should be ashamed of themselves, they started out the season like wildfire, then by the time California reached actual wildfire season they bought every available player on the market and performed worse.  Now they are paying infinity dollars for a non-playoff team, just like the Cubs!  The Giants managed to keep up their amazing season despite Melky Cabrera informing us that BALCO does, in fact, still conduct their business (Bartolo Colon only confirmed it), mostly due to Matt Cain having his breakout year and Buster Posey stepping up to take the slack.  I guess the Diamondbacks were lightning in a bottle last year as they brought in an improved team and finished at a respectable .500.  San Diego put up a solid year despite having no more than one nationally known player on their roster.  I still don't know what happened to the Rockies, their DL looks like it could win 70 games!  Lets look at award winners now!
I guess there wasn't enough Magic.
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Week 1 Prediction: Miguel Cabrera)
Nailed it!  I thought for a little while that I was going to have to give it to Mike Trout, but then Miggy finished the season like a man possessed and gave us the first Triple Crown since 1967.  I am proud of him, as he has put himself above Pujols and could easily be sold as the best hitter in baseball right now.  I can understand how some people still think Trout deserves the MVP, but the modern convention has given precedence to playoff players and milestones.  Trout had plenty milestones, but if Ichiro doesn't get a single 1st place vote for the most hits ever in a season I don't know how a leadoff hitter could ever win (you know unless he manages only a .344 OBP...)  Sorry Trout you put up a valiant effort, but you aren't getting this trophy yet.

NL MVP: Buster Posey (Weel 1 Prediction: Troy Tulowitzki)
Yeouch, Tulo got hurt so I should get a waiver for that, but saying the NL West was winnable for the Rockies was terrible.  I wish Tulo the best of luck in years going forward.  I don't want Posey to win, but I think the convention of the voters will make him the winner, despite making it obvious that the first half of the season is meaningless.  Here are some players that deserve it over Posey.  Ryan Braun, who likely put the whole steroid mess behind him and put up better numbers with a worse guy hitting behind him.  Yadier Molina, who didn't quite have the statistical prowess of Posey but still put up a very good statistical year and is indispensable for a very easy to hate Cardinals team.  Andrew McCutchen for his breakout year everyone knew was coming.  And finally, Adam LaRoche, I can hardly think of a player who was more consistently effective for his team.

AL Cy Young: David Price (Week 1 Prediction: Justin Verlander)
I could still be right, some analysts have said Verlander has put up a better year than Price.  But I am usually of the convention that when WHIP and ERA are comparable you look at wins, not strikeouts, cause sometimes you need a little luck to win a game and you need a little more luck to win a Cy Young.  I wouldn't be surprised if either player won.

NL Cy Young: Gio Gonzalez (Week 1 Prediction: Adam Wainwright)
Apparently I had no feel for the NL awards going into this year.  I am very proud of Gio Gonzalez, when he was traded to Washington I felt that was the turning point for the Nationals to be a playoff squad, and it needed to get more attention than it did.  Seeing him live, I was only more drawn in to his aura, where he seems like a truly nice guy who deserves this honor.  I wish him all the best in his career and will watch over him as long as I can.  Johnny Cueto and R.A. Dickey have also put up good years, but as I said with Price, when all else is similar, consult the wins.  Or give it to the guy whose slugging percentage against is less than .300.

AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout
I discussed him for MVP, that is some Ichiro shit right there.  Nobody else should even get a vote, no second place votes, just give Trout the trophy.
He can also catch a ball!

NL Rookie of the Year: Bryce Harper
This was a very close race for a large portion of the year with Harper doing admirably for a 19 year old, but still seeming like he was worse than Wade Miley and Todd Frazier.  Then September happened.  Harper was a monster in that final month of the season, and made me wonder if the way he runs the bases was similar to the spirit Ty Cobb had.  I've never seen a player before that forces the opposition to make a perfect throw as often as Harper has.

AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter (Week 1 Prediction: Joe Maddon)
Buck did an amazing job, which I have already talked about.  Now he has to get them to beat the Yankees.  I also feel obliged to mention Robin Ventura.

NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson (Week 1 Prediction: Ozzie Guillen)
The Nationals have such a young team, and even though they are very talented it has to take a good managerial job to make them the best team in baseball.  Ozzie Guillen never could get the Marlins off the ground.  I also think Dusty Baker did a good job bringing the Reds back into the playoffs after stumbling last year.  Screw Mike Matheny only because I hate the Cardinals.  Also, I like the Nationals this year.

Playoff Picture
Detroit over Oakland (It's basically over already)
Baltimore over New York (Unless Jeffrey Maier has anything to say about it)
Washington over St. Louis (Go home Cards, you are living a lie)
Cincinnati over San Francisco (Ditto from Detroit)

Detroit over Baltimore (Detroit is a better team than they have shown all year)
Cincinnati over Washington (It pains me to say it)

Cincinnati over Detroit (We may have a new Big Red Machine)
Maybe not...

Friday, April 13, 2012

Baseball Week 1: Time to Look at the Award Races!

I am probably as excited as anybody about the beginning of baseball season, partially because PRP was just launched so I can write all the baseball articles I want without bogging down my personal page. My favorite thing about baseball is the excess of statistical data around it, it is a game of numbers and I am a mathematics student, we play nice.  The obvious benefit of so much data is that it is fairly easy to use the numbers to make your arguments on who is best, especially for the use in deciding awards, so since small sample size is no problem for me here are my early looks at the major end of the season awards.
Ahh!  Its a major award!
AL MVP
Lets look at reigning MVP Justin Verlander first, a judgement of his person would quickly lead most people to conclude "Fuck him he's a pitcher..." but an in depth look at his current stats on the season (0-1, 2.20 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 14K) instantly changes that conclusion to "Fuck him he's a pitcher with a losing record."  Now that we have Verlander and all other pitchers out of the equation (yeah, we are just going to ignore them), we can look at the important people who hit things with wood.  Miguel Cabrera certainly looks like the early favorite as he is hitting .381 thus far and is on pace for 81 HR and 243 RBI.  I checked, both of those would be single season records.  But before you get too excited about these "perennial candidates" let me direct your attention toward Josh Willingham of the Twins who may be having an even better year.  As of now he is on pace to not only be on a wild home run chase with Cabrera as he is on pace to slug 108 homers, but he is also on pace to be the first person to hit .400 since Ted Williams in 1941!  Even though Cabrera may have a temporary lead on him in RBI, Willingham is on pace for a truly historic season so needs to be the clear favorite in the AL MVP race despite being on a 2-4 Twins team.
He is also a fantastic defender!
NL MVP
Since all of Braun's numbers are down from last year we can safely write off the drop in numbers to his drop in testosterone and write him off our ballots.  Last year's playoff hero David Freese apparently agrees with me that small sample size is an excuse made only by turbo-geeks and people who need excuses for not playing like a champion.  He is off to a hot start hitting .429 with 3 HR and 10 RBI, I can only let you think about how awesome those numbers are going to look by the end of the season, but I get the feeling this guy is only going to get better.  But Freese only has a measly .750 slugging percentage which pales in comparison to some absolute BEASTS in the NL, those BEASTS are Corey Hart, Omar Infante and Chris Young who have slugging percentages of .941 .920 and .909 respectively.  While all of those look weak compared to Josh Willingham, they knock Freese out of the race even with his RBI prowess.  So we have a three man race for the NL MVP right now, but I'm putting my money on Infante since he is a 2B and the Marlins are on national TV every other day.
The only way to slow down this BEAST is to punch him in the balls!
AL Cy Young
We already established that Verlander is a loser this year so he is so far down the list I don't even want to speak his name again for the rest of my life.  Lets find some winners, like Minnesota's Jeff Gray!  This dude has 2 wins in 1.2 innings, talk about effeciency!  He has also already pitched in 4 games so he would have 4 wins already if some Twins hitters not named Willingham could hit.  We also have Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson who pitched 8.2 scoreless innings in his debut for the win.  He did get hit in the head with a line drive during batting practice yesterday, but i'm sure that won't slow him down.  So the question is do you prefer to rate pitchers on wins or being a total workhorse?  I love workhorses, so I'll take Hellboy and his potential for a 32-0 record with 277.1 scoreless innings this year.  
Also quite intimidating on the mound.
NL Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw can pitch as well has he wants this year (and he has been pitching rather well), but there is only one headline among all of the pitchers in the NL, the return of Barry Zito!  The 2002 AL Cy Young winner is here to prove us that the only way to do things is to only try every 10 years and reap the benefits.  Now that Zito is actually trying again, he is going to go out there and throw at least 27 complete game shutouts this year and collectively tell hitters "Fuck you, I'm Barry Fucking Zito, look at my 12-6 curve!"  Nobody else is even approaching his level so I won't even bother giving them hope.  
And hes a hunk!
AL Manager of the Year
There are no numbers for managers at all so I'm only left to believe the voting is based entirely on how adequately an old guy can remind us of this Spongebob scene.  My vote is Joe Maddon, he seems to get it every year anyways.
He even has technology!
NL Manager of the Year
Looking for radical old folk?  Look no further than Ozzie Guillen.  He gets bonus points for being controversial, as he is currently suspended 5 games for talking about some Fidel Castro guy, I think he's one of their top minor league prospects or something.  I don't pay much attention to that stuff but, as I already pointed out, the Marlins are on national TV every other day.
Bad fans are also bad at 1st grade!
All joking aside here are my real predictions for the end of the year.
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (He will be considered the best player in baseball this time next year)
NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki (He's due and the NL West is winnable)
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander (I know its a popular pick but he is a great pitcher in a weak hitting division)
NL Cy Young: Adam Wainwright (I needed a risky pick, and I love this guy)
AL Manager: Joe Maddon (The man does good work)
NL Manager: Mike Matheny (They love new guys on winning teams)